poker variance

Poker variance must be expected by the serious Texas Holdem player. Variance in poker happens all the time; and this must be especially understood by those who are experienced and play high stakes poker, so that they don't lose all of their bankroll either out of stubbornness or out of the belief that variance cannot happen to them because of their high skill level.

If you as a player expect that once you have attained a certain skill level in poker you will always play to victory, that you will win most every hand because you are mentally more prepared than your usual opponent, you'd better have another thing coming. It does not matter if you play online poker or sit at an actual table, it does not matter if you play high stakes or small stakes, it does not matter if you truly are highly skilled with every and any poker hand that you could be dealt--poker variance, variance in poker games that you, oh great one, play your hand in, is going to happen. It is inevitable.

The true great ones of poker know that poker variance strikes usually without warning and that it is coming their way. But what about your high and mighty poker skills? What did you study and practice all that time for? Are you not supposed to have by now an edge over at least most of your opponents? How could the cards be so cruel and unusual?

There is nothing unusual about it. The cards are cruel by nature. Lady Luck is a cold hearted lover and a crazy jukebox dancer. Your skill only gives you an edge. It does not give you immunity from the laws of, well, "nature".

Now, Texas Holdem is a game of skill in the long run--but, in the day to day world of poker, that lady luck plays a leading role. The very best of players will experience sustained losing streaks, when all of their bravado, psychological insight, position wisdom, and mathematical wizardry will fail them. If you cannot grasp or accept this part of the game, just give up now.

And so it goes with that which is known as variance. Now, if you have a more aggressive style of play, you will experience greater variance than the average. But it doesn't matter how cautious you are; you are going to experience the ups and downs of poker variance sooner or later, and the longer you play the more you'll experience variance in poker.

You see, variance doesn't get any better. What needs to get better is you. And not with your skill...I mean, yes you certainly do want and need to continually improve your Texas Holdem skill level, and it does make a big difference...But when it comes to variance in poker, what needs to get better is your acceptance of the inevitable. Acceptance of the variance.

Now, why is it so important for you to accept variance in poker? So you don't go nuts and blow it all because either as a beginner you don't see it coming when you have your beginner's luck; or, so as someone a more experienced you don't quit because you think that the inevitable variance means you just don't have the touch or have lost your edge and you quit.

Consider what that 2006 World Series of Poker two-bracelet winner William Chen has written in so many words that if you are a SKILLED player (like him) you win $120 for every $100 that you lose, or if you are playing high stakes poker you win $600 for every $500 that you lose. I have previously written of similarities between baseball and Texas Holdem success ratios. Consider that a successful baseball team--a winning team that makes the playoffs and maybe wins the World Series--might only win, say, 20 more games than it loses over a six-month season. That means they didn't win even 60% of their games...yet they became champions.

Variance in poker means you need to be prepared to lose and lose a lot. The inevitability of poker variance means that if you are highly skilled you'll only win a little more than you lose; and yet, that's good enough to be a champion, a winner.

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